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Non-commodity costs now make up 62% of a typical business electricity bill, gas and power are still climbing, and businesses that waited to buy this year paid more. Here are the key takeaways from our Autumn 2026 Energy Insights report, and how to download the full report.
Wholesale prices are only part of the story. As our latest quarterly Energy Insights report shows, the costs that sit around the energy itself now make up the majority of a typical business electricity bill – and they're still rising.
Our Autumn 2026 report brings together the views of our trading desk, procurement and commercial teams on where the market is heading and what it means for your energy costs. Here are the key takeaways.
The 26/27 contract has now finished trading. Throughout the year, gas and power moved almost in lockstep, both climbing within bullish channels. The late dip before trading ended looked like a short-term correction, not a change in direction.
Looking further ahead, 27/28 and 28/29 are both in unbroken upward trends. Our trading desk expects that to continue unless there's a clear catalyst – the most significant being a resolution between the US and Iran.
For buyers, that means holding out for a deeper fall is a bet the charts don't currently support.
Three years ago, wholesale energy made up around two-thirds of a typical electricity unit rate. In 2026/27, it accounts for just 38%.
The remaining 62% is non-commodity costs: the network, balancing and policy charges that pay to move, manage and decarbonise the energy you use. By 2027/28, that share is forecast to reach 69%.
That creates a counter-intuitive picture for next year. Wholesale energy is forecast to fall by almost a fifth, yet the total unit rate is still expected to rise – because non-commodity costs are forecast to increase by around 12%. Distribution charges (DUoS) alone are forecast to rise by 50%.
Standing charges are climbing even faster. Under RIIO-3, the new framework for funding the grid, fixed network charges are forecast to rise by between 68% and 117% between 2025/26 and 2027/28, depending on your site's voltage band.
That's why it pays to compare renewals on the full delivered rate, not just the headline energy price.
It's been a busy quarter for energy policy. Changes already affecting businesses include:
Further ahead, manufacturers should prepare for BICS electricity relief, importers of certain materials should assess their exposure to the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from 1 January 2027, and Ofgem is set to become the formal regulator of energy brokers.
We also looked at how businesses across our book contracted through two price spikes in 2026.
In spring, buyers froze. At the height of the April spike, only 22% of deals were signed three or more months ahead of their start date – and contracts signed within a month of starting cost up to 20% more than those agreed well in advance.
When prices rose again over the summer, buyers moved earlier. Half of July's deals were signed three or more months ahead, and businesses that fixed in July and August secured electricity at around 24.5p to 25p per kWh, compared with 27p in September.
Contract length matters too. The forward curve is currently in backwardation, meaning the nearest seasons are the most expensive. A shorter contract is priced entirely off that expensive front end, while a longer term blends in cheaper, steadier seasons – often resulting in a lower average price.
The full Energy Insights, Autumn 2026 report includes the forward curves and levels our trading desk is watching, a line-by-line breakdown of non-commodity costs, the regulatory changes to plan for and the buying patterns behind this year's price spikes.
If you'd like to talk through how these trends could affect your own sites and contracts, our team is here to help.
Questions about the report? We're on stand-by for an informal, no-obligation chat.
